Foresight

Future as a starting point for strategy work

By using the future as a starting point for strategy work, decision-making is based on future possibilities and alternatives - not just on what has worked in the past. Forward-looking strategy work makes the strategy more sustainable.

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Building a strategy for the future

Strategic choices are made that will have an impact for years to come. If a strategy is built too heavily on the present and on historical knowledge, it may prove fragile as the environment changes. Decision-making based on the future is inherently stronger than decision-making based only on what has worked in the past. 

Future as a starting point for strategy work means systematically examining decisions in relation to different possible futures, making visible the assumptions on which the strategy is based and consciously building the desired future.

Forward-looking strategy work

Looking to the future as a starting point for strategy work does not mean passive preparedness, but conscious direction. It reinforces the ability to influence the future the organisation is building. Through strategic choices based on an understanding of the future, an organisation can steer development, take advantage of disruption and build competitive advantage before others. Foresight provides the necessary perspective and a common language.

Forward-looking strategy work helps:

  • recognise changes before they become visible in the bottom line or in the pressures of everyday life
  • assess which current strengths will remain relevant in the future
  • make visible the assumptions and beliefs on which decision-making is based
  • make choices that can withstand multiple possible trajectories
  • build the future you want

 

In this way, the strategy does not remain reactive, but acts as an active tool to set a direction.

Making strategic assumptions visible and reviewable

Each strategy is based on assumptions about how the environment will evolve: what customers will be like in the future, how markets will work, and what technology or regulation will drive business. But often these assumptions remain implicit.

Future as a starting point for strategy work means making strategic assumptions visible and daring to challenge them. Foresight helps to ask questions:

  • which assumptions are critical to the success of the strategy
  • which ones are uncertain
  • what happens if a key assumption is not met

 

This improves the sustainability of the strategy and reduces the risk of building the future on too narrow a vision.

Scenarios to support strategic choices

Scenarios are a key tool for forward-looking strategy work. They do not offer a prediction of what will happen, but alternative and plausible descriptions of future worlds.

Scenarios can be used to identify strategic issues, opportunities and threats even before the strategy is formulated. Once the strategy is in place, scenarios are an effective way to test its performance in different possible futures and to strengthen the organisation's preparedness for the future. Scenarios are also a good way of outlining what kind of future the organisation wants to be creating and what needs to be done to get there.

Scenarios allow strategic decisions to be considered in different futures:

  • which options work for several options
  • where the strategy is vulnerable
  • where the unexpected opportunities lie

 

In this way, scenarios support decision-making when there is no certainty and help you make bold but informed choices.

The future makes about the strategy more sustainable

By taking the future as a starting point for strategy work, the strategy is not just based on what has been true, but on what can be true. This makes for better quality decision-making, more sustainable choices and a genuinely forward-looking strategy.

SOLUTIONS

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