Growth requires reaching for the sky

I recently took part in Growth group to organise an event at which the future of Finland’s growth was discussed. One idea in particular stuck in my mind: many of the obstacles to growth are not structural, but relate to thinking, behaviour and what we consider to be possible.

How optimistic are we about the future? How aware are we, really, of what is happening in the world? And how often do we stop to question our own assumptions about what is possible?

These issues do not concern society alone, but everyone striving for growth management team.

Growth begins with what we believe is possible

Growth requires the ability to imagine a better tomorrow. The foundation of renewal lies in the ability to envisage a positive future – not as a pipe dream, but as a guide to the way forward. Without a vision of the future, we lack the courage to invest, take risks or build anything genuinely new.

People’s expectations of the future guide the decisions they make today. If we believe that opportunities are limited, we act cautiously. If, on the other hand, we see alternatives, we invest, experiment and learn more quickly.

However, simply imagining it is not enough. Growth is a strategic choice that must be reflected in recruitment, sales and communications. A growth strategy cannot be a secret known only to the management team.

Strategic foresight helps us to identify opportunities

We know that companies which systematically utilise future-oriented thinking perform better than others: they are 33 % more profitable and grow 200 % faster than average (Rohrbeck & Kum 2018). Foresight strengthens innovation capacity, internal entrepreneurship and resilience. It supports decision-making in the face of uncertainty and helps to identify changes before they become apparent.

In day-to-day life, however, this does not happen automatically. On the contrary – the management team’s attention is easily drawn to immediate issues. That is precisely why foresight is important for growth: it helps to lift our gaze from day-to-day operations to the horizon. The management team has to juggle sales figures, staff well-being, customer expectations, technological developments and cost pressures all at once. The focus tends to shift towards operational matters.

What is strategic foresight?

At its simplest, strategic foresight is the ability to spot changes in good time, interpret their significance and make decisions before one is forced to. It does not eliminate uncertainty, but it reduces the element of surprise. In practice, this means that an organisation is constantly keeping its finger on the pulse of what is happening in the market and in the world – and, above all, what this means for its own business.

• What do our customers need next?
• What skills are we lacking?
• Where is the market heading?
• Which of our current practices are not sustainable for the future?

In a company aiming for growth, this is crucial. If a company only reacts once customer churn is reflected in the figures or a competitor has already taken market share, it is often too late. Anticipation gives you time to choose, rather than simply adapt.

The problem is not a lack of information, but a lack of interpretation

Practical experience shows that, within the same market, some companies grow rapidly whilst others remain stagnant. The difference does not stem solely from the market itself, but from how the organisation interprets it. In many organisations, the information about the future already exists, but it is scattered:

• The sales team listens to customers’ concerns
• Customer service identifies recurring issues
• Production identifies bottlenecks
• HR identifies skills gaps
• Management monitors the market and shareholders’ expectations

The problem, then, is not a lack of information, but a lack of a shared understanding. Strategic foresight requires a space in which these observations can be brought together – not just in the form of reports, but through discussion:

• What does this mean for us?
• What should we be prepared for?
• What opportunities are we not yet making the most of?

Management must have the courage to question its own assumptions

This is where the role of the management team comes to the fore. The management team is not merely a decision-making body, but the driving force behind the company’s collective thinking. Leading growth requires us to question our own beliefs. Without this, objectives easily become a mere continuation of the present – a slightly better version of today.

Foresight brings structure to thinking:

• makes assumptions visible
• help to test them
• opens up new opportunities

A management team aiming for growth would do well to regularly pause and consider at least the following questions:

1. What is happening in the world that we are not yet paying enough attention to?
2. What is changing in our customers’ world?
3. Which of our assumptions about growth might be out of date?
4. Where might growth arise if we thought more ambitiously?

Finally: what decision was left undone today?

Let’s return to the event I mentioned at the start and the question I heard there. Growth almost always requires a tolerance of uncertainty.

That is why we should all ask ourselves: What decision did we put off making today because it seemed too ambitious or uncertain?

You can download the Growth Group’s report, ”An Alternative Future for Finland’s Growth” From the Growth Group’s website.